Bitcoin looks ready to resume its slide as the price is testing the top of the descending channel on the 1-hour time frame. If this keeps holding as resistance, price could head back to the channel support around the $9,000 major psychological mark.
The channel top lines up with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level at $10,200 and is also close to the 100 SMA dynamic inflection point. This moving average is below the slower-moving 200 SMA to indicate that the path of least resistance is to the downside or that the downtrend is more likely to gain traction than to reverse.
RSI is already turning lower to signal a return in bearish momentum before the oscillator even hit the overbought zone. Stochastic already reached the overbought level and is turning lower to signal that bearish pressure is returning. Price could also find support at the swing low of $9,859.
On the other hand, a break past the 50% level could take bitcoin up to the 61.8% Fib at $10,280.95 or the line in the sand for the downtrend, which is the 200 SMA dynamic inflection point.
BTC/USD Chart – TradingView
Bitcoin has struggled to keep up its rallies, even with institutional volumes expected to tick up with the Bakkt launch. Bullish momentum just can’t quite seem to pick up, even though risk-taking remains feeble in general financial markets. Still, any major pickup in risk aversion, possibly stemming from geopolitical risks or trade concerns could elevate cryptocurrencies as the more viable investments.
There are speculations that the decline is merely a bear trap as volume has formed lower highs while selling momentum has been easing. At the same time, bitcoin is also in a falling wedge formation, which is generally considered a bullish signal because of its shallower lows compared to highs.
Long-term fundamentals like the record hashrate and the halving next year could keep price supported, but it appears that bitcoin traders are holding out for a near-term catalyst to take it out of the holding pattern.
Images courtesy of TradingView
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