There’s Only A 4% Chance Bitcoin Sets A New All-Time High In 2020

The probability of bitcoin hitting a new all-time high of more than $20,000 by the end of 2020 is a mere 4%. This is according to data relayed by analytics firm Skew, which monitors the bitcoin (BTC) options market.

Bitcoin has been teetering around the lower $6ks for the past few days, and while some analysts remain optimistic amid the coronavirus pandemic, there is a 96% chance that the flagship cryptocurrency will not record a new ATH by 2020 year-end.

The Probability Of Bitcoin Surpassing $20,000 By The End Of 2020 Is Just 4%

A bitcoin option is a derivative product that gives traders the option, but not the obligation, to buy or sell bitcoin at a particular price and at a specified date. In other words, BTC options lets traders speculate on the price of bitcoin in the future.

Skew monitored the open interest on BTC options and found that there’s a 4 percent probability that bitcoin passes $20,000 by December 25, 2020.

Market probability of bitcoin at new all-time-high for year-end = 4%

i.e BTC > $20k on 25th of December 2020

— skew (@skewdotcom)

Nonetheless, despite the gloomy prices in the bitcoin market lately, bulls are not giving up just yet.

Analysts Remain Long-Term Bullish

As the coronavirus pandemic rattles the world economy and disrupts everyday life, bitcoin has been clobbered hard. The crypto-asset has been stuck in a long period of consolidation below $7,000. BTC is exchanging hands at $6,165.78 at the time of publication, which represents a significant decline from daily highs of around $6,750.

In fact, some analysts expect a fall to the $5k zone in the near-term. But, analyst Bitcoin Macro is still optimistic that the coronavirus crisis will not destroy bitcoin and cryptocurrencies in general.

Don’t worry.

Coronavirus won’t destroy crypto.

Your $150 worth of $BTC are safe.

— Bitcoin Macro (@BTC_Macro)

Dan Morehead, the CEO of Pantera Capital is even more optimistic. In a letter to investors on March 26, Morehead noted that bitcoin (BTC) will shine in 2020’s coronavirus-induced global recession and likely hit a new all-time high within the next 12 months.

Morehead explained that bitcoin was born during the 2008 financial crisis and in this year’s financial meltdown, the king of cryptocurrencies “will come of age”. He further opined:

“The price of bitcoin may set a record in the next 12 months. It’s not going to happen overnight. My guess is that it will take institutional investors two, three months to triage their current portfolio issues. Another three to six months to research new opportunities like distressed debt, special situations, crypto, etc. Then, as they begin making allocations, those markets will begin to rise.”