Bitcoin is still trading inside its symmetrical triangle on the 4-hour time frame and is currently retreating to the middle. This lines up with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level and the $11,000 major psychological mark.

The 100 SMA crossed below the longer-term 200 SMA to indicate that the path of least resistance is to the downside. In other words, resistance is more likely to hold than to break. In that case, bitcoin could retreat to the triangle support at the $10,000 major psychological mark or the swing low at $9,473.93.

RSI is turning lower to show that bullish pressure has faded and that sellers are taking over. Stochastic is also heading south from the overbought zone to show that bearish momentum is picking up. However, a larger retracement to the 61.8% Fib at the very top of the triangle might still be possible.

A break below the triangle bottom could set off a drop that’s around the same height as the chart formation, which spans $9,200 to around $13,800. Similarly, a break past the triangle top could spur a climb that’s of the same size.

BTC/USD Chart – TradingView

Bitcoin appears to be drawing some support ahead of the Bakkt launch as the exchange was officially approved by the CFTC and promises to draw more institutional funds to the space. Bakkt is due to be released on September 23, so it’s understandable that traders could be positioning before a potential volume and price surge.

Longer-term fundamentals are also bullish for bitcoin as the record hash rate and the “halvening” slated for early next year are likely to keep price supported in the months ahead. Apart from that, regulatory authorities seem to be softening their stance on bitcoin, at least since after the Facebook Libra announcement as no major changes to oversight have been decided on.

Images courtesy of TradingView

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